Skip to main navigation menu Skip to main content Skip to site footer

Scientific and Professional papers: Economics and Business

Vol. 16 No. 2 (2021): South East European Journal of Economics and Business

EVALUATION OF MIXED FREQUENCY APPROACHES FOR TRACKING NEAR-TERM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH MACEDONIA

Submitted
March 31, 2021
Published
September 6, 2021

Abstract

Aggregate demand forecasting, also known as nowcasting when it applies to current quarter assessment, is of notable interest to policy makers. This paper concentrates on the empirical methods dealing with mixed-frequency data. In particular, it focuses on the MIDAS approach and its later extension, the Bayesian MFVAR. The two strategies are evaluated in terms of their accuracy to nowcast Macedonian GDP growth, using
same monthly frequency data set. The results of this study indicate that the MIDAS regressions demonstrate comparable forecasting performance to that of MF-VAR model. Moreover, it is interesting to note that the two approaches are reciprocal, since in general, their combined forecast demonstrates clear superiority in predicting business cycle turning points. Additionally, the MF-VAR model showed higher precision in times of increased uncertainty.

Most read articles by the same author(s)